Can fracking calm the energy crisis?

Or is shale destined to fail?
11 October 2022
Presented by Chris Smith, James Tytko
Production by James Tytko, Risa Bagwandin.

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Oil drilling

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Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is an industrial process undertaken to access pockets of gas locked inside rock formations underground. It’s seen by its proponents as a vital part of the solution to the current energy crisis, particularly as on-going tensions with Russia mean gas supply security looks very uncertain and remains very expensive. Critics, however, have pointed to environmental concerns and contest how much it could actually reduce energy prices. So, we’re going to remove party politics from this contentious topic and see what the science has to say. We’re sorting fract, from fiction!

 

In this episode

Oil drilling

04:12 - The geology of fracking

Just what are the geological processes involved in fracking, and does it cause earthquakes?

The geology of fracking
Andy Woods, University of Cambridge

Andy Woods works on how fluids behave at Cambridge University and so is just the man to explain what exactly fracking entails…

James - This week we are going to try and get to the bottom of one of the most divisive topics dominating the national discourse here in the UK and abroad at the moment.

Chris - No, we're not talking about Prime Minister Liz Truss per se, but in fact the cause that's being championed by the people she was interrupted by there at the Conservative party conference. They were fracking activists. Now, hydraulic fracturing or fracking is an industrial process. It's undertaken to access pockets of gas that are locked inside rock formations underground. There's reportedly a very large reserve of this fossil fuel that can be recovered this way. So it's seen by its proponents as a vital part of the solution to the current energy crisis. Particularly as ongoing tensions with Russia mean that gas supply security looks extremely uncertain and also remaining very expensive.

James - Critics on the other hand say that lifting the fracking ban is a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul. While it might defer energy concerns, although to what extent is also up for debate, it is in direct conflict with another significant impressing issue - climate change. It may also have onward environmental impacts including groundwater contamination and seismic activity. In other words, earthquakes.

Chris - And this led to some heated exchanges in the House of Commons this week recently between the energy secretary and his shadow counterpart.

Jacob Rees-Mogg - And I'm glad to be able to announce that the moratorium on extraction of Shell gas is being lifted. It is important that we use all available sources of fuel within this country. It is more environmentally friendly to use our own sources of fuel rather than to extract them from other countries and transport them here at great cost, both financially and in terms of carbon. And we need to revisit the seismic limits to ensure that shell gas extraction can be done in an effective and efficient way.

Ed Miliband - They are lifting the ban, but they can't supply the evidence. And the British Geological Survey published today certainly doesn't do it. So in the absence of the evidence, his approach is to change the safety limits. You can't escape a fossil fuels crisis by doubling down on fossil fuels.

Jacob Rees-Mogg - We know that shale gas is safe, it's safe in the United States and has been one of the biggest contributors and has been one of the biggest contributors to the decline in carbon emissions in the United States of any activity that has gone on in that country. We know that seismic activity of 2.5 and below on the Richter scale takes place millions of times a year across the world. Bringing on this supply will bring us cheaper energy, which we need.

Chris - Jacob Rees-Mogg and Ed Milliband. So today we are going to remove the party politics from the equation and we're gonna see what the science has to say. I suppose you could say we are sorting fracked from fiction and if we end up with earthquakes, then friction too.

James - Before the show this week, we asked our Twitter followers what their gut reaction was to whether fracking had their support. 68% said no. 20% said yes, and 12% were unsure. It'll be interesting to see if by the end of today's show, anyone might have changed their mind.

Chris - Well, to kick us off, I'd like to introduce Andy Woods, who is a scientist who studies how fluids behave at the University of Cambridge. He's therefore just the man to explain to us how fracking works and what it entails. Welcome to the program, Andy. What actually is shale gas? Is it the same stuff that we would get from under the North Sea to all intents and purposes?

Andy - Yeah, so shale gas is essentially a large part of it is going to be methane, but it's different from the gas that comes from some of the other reservoirs because it's trapped in shale. And shale is a very fine grain sedimentary material with grains of size of about 10 microns. And the very small pores between those grains is where the shale gas is host, and then there's also some gas adsorbed on the surfaces. And so there's organic matter inside those shale deposits which ultimately is the origin of that gas. But because these rocks are so fine grained, the gas can actually be trapped inside the rock and doesn't flow. In normal situations it'll have extremely slow flow rates.

Chris - The reason that we don't have to frack under the North Sea, for example. Presumably the geology there means you've got big pockets of gas all in communication, whereas when it's in these tiny pores in the rocks, you need to smash the rocks up a bit in order to make those little pockets of gas join up to make big ones.

Andy - So, I think fracking as a process occurs in lots of different situations. But with the shale, the gas is essentially locked into those small pores in the shale. And so what you do is you drill a well down to the shale formation and and then pump up a mixture of water and sand and some chemicals and seal off the rest of the well so that that mixture can actually open up fractures in that shale. And the water carries the small sand particles with it and they end up propping open these fractures so that you've essentially opened up and provided a flow path from the rock back into the well to allow that gas to, to flow. But the gas that flows is actually gas that's very close to that fracture propped open.

Chris - How deep underground are we talking?

Andy - Well this will vary depending on the formation but we're looking at orders one, two kilometres below the surface.

Chris - And how do scientists know it's there?

Andy - If you look at the shale deposits, if you look at the geologic history of the different basins and different deposits, there's hints from that that there will be gas present in different deposits. But if you actually produce a sample of the shale and find organic matter in it and that's been through an appropriate process of being buried in the earth and coming back up again, you'd expect some of that to have produced gas.

Chris - And I follow what you say about the fact that, you break open the rocks and then prop open the gaps with the sand grains. How far can that effect go then? I mean, how far can you reach with one particular shaft, one drill shaft?

Andy - So you may actually drill a well vertically down and then it may run horizontally through the formation and then you'd prop open different parts of that selectively increasing the pressure of the hydraulic fluid in a short section of the well that'll open up the rock there and that fluid may travel a few hundred metres of order away from the well and the particles will hold open that fracture for some time. So essentially you are providing surface area for the gas near that surface area to flow into the world.

Chris - So does this mean then to get an appreciable amount of gas out, you've got to drill lots of holes or can we actually recover a reasonable amount of gas from just one drill site and then you just keep it open for a while?

Andy - So the actual gas that will flow into the fractures that you are creating that are connected to the well is only gonna come from a very small distance away from that fracture maybe of order a few centimetres typically? It depends on the time scale. That gas flows extremely slowly so it's really creating surface area and all the gas trapped in the rock around that fracture is what's going to be recovered. So you produce a very large surface area through this fracking in these deep deposits. And it's the gas around that fracture that's recovered.

Chris - The thing that people are concerned about, really, there are two aspects, aren't there? What happens to the ground? Does it destabilise it, does it cause earthquakes? That's what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying, that we should get used to a few more earthquakes. And also whether or not the chemicals that go down, the mud and the water and so on, whether they go down and stay down or whether they go elsewhere. So what, what do we know, first of all about the earthquake side of things?

Andy - So, we do know there's earthquakes that can happen in this process, because essentially when you are injecting the hydraulic fluid and lifting up fractures, that's essentially cracking open those fractures. So that will produce small earthquakes and they can be tracked by different seismic monitoring techniques. Being able to predict exactly how many earthquakes and the distribution of earthquakes is much more challenging. Because it depends on having a detailed understanding of the fault distribution, the stress state of the rocks, where you are injecting the fluids and seeing if you can actually have faults as the faults open up. So that's a very difficult thing to predict in great detail.

Chris - But will they just be minor quakes? Because the point that Jacob Rees Mogg is making is that there are these 2.5 on the Richter scale quakes happening all over the world by the million. They're very minor and therefore they are of small, of low consequence. So we shouldn't worry about them. I mean, is that true? And also given that we are, we are not in an earthquake zone here anyway in the uk, is this a fairly trivial consequence in the grand scheme of things, you're not gonna trigger a massive great earthquake just by doing this, presumably.

Andy - I think if you're injecting large volumes of fluid in the subsurface and fractures, then I think you will trigger earthquakes

Chris - And the question of what goes down, does it stay down or do those liquids smooth?

Andy - So the liquids are typically you try and recover some of these liquids because if you've opened up this flow path to actually the gas to flow back out up the, well, if that fracture when you produce it, it's full of the water you've injected with the sand and the chemicals and that's obviously going to provide some resistance to having gas coming back out through that flow path. So normally you try and back produce some of that and bring it back to the surface and then dispose of that water but some of the water may, because of effects of surface tension and a process called inhibition, some of that water may flow into other parts of the formation or may be absorbed into some of the clay materials. So some of it will remain down in the system. And some of it you can recover.

Chris - We'll look more at these environmental questions as we go on with the program. But Andy, thank you very much for giving us an introduction to it. That's Andy Woods. He is from the University of Cambridge.

Stacked coins

09:47 - Will fracking make economic sense?

We work through the critical factors which will determine if lifting the fracking ban will be a success...

Will fracking make economic sense?
Michael Grubb UCL

So having familiarised ourselves with the process itself, let’s switch our focus to some of the economic arguments for and against shale gas extraction. Cambridge-based Michael Grubb is a Professor of Energy and Climate Change at University College London.

James - So having familiarized ourselves with the process itself, let's switch our focus to some of the economic arguments for and against shale gas extraction. Cambridge based, Michael Grubb is a professor of energy and climate change at University College London. Thanks for coming in. Michael, before we get to fracking, could you start by outlining the nature of the energy security crisis we face at the moment, because that's the reason that this topic is back on the table.

Michael - Sure. Well, obviously we're in a pretty serious energy crisis, which is not unknown in the last 50 years. This time really, we actually had a period of pretty low investment globally in gas because gas prices actually were pretty low for a decade or so. Coming out of COVID, demand surged, particularly in Asia. There was already a bit of a supply crunch. And then of course we had the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia as a major supplier to Europe and that drove the gas markets into the frenzy, that we have seen over the last year. The UK , it feeds largely on the international markets, but that means we're competing with Asia very directly for what gas is available. That has made it extremely expensive. The UK had very little storage, almost no storage to fall back on.

Michael - I think the other thing to say is as the war has dragged on, we've seen gradual tightening of exports from Russia declining close to zero now. We had explosions on two gas pipes last week and also the energy industry as a whole is now really nervous. So they're trying to contract ahead, a year ahead or two years or more at very high prices just to make sure they can get something. So this crisis is not going away any time soon and that I think is what's really sinking in with people now .

James - We're talking about this because the moratorium on fracking has been lifted. Can you tell us a bit about why fracking was banned in the first place?

Michael - Yes. I think, it's useful to look back and recognize that there was a huge wave of enthusiasm about fracking, at least in the industry about a decade ago. There had been pretty much a technology revolution in the US and there was lots of hype about if Europe was gonna get in on the act. Actually most of that ended in disappointment across much of Europe, including the UK. There were some pockets of potential fracking, but most of the industry concluded it wasn't gonna be very much, it wouldn't be very cheap, and it really wasn't worth the risk. So actually it was largely industry backed away. Some companies kept going where they were committed specifically to that and I think one of the factors which did then knock that back ,aside from the wider environmental concerns on climate change was indeed earthquakes as well as in some other regions reports of, of chemicals leaking into water supplies. So I think the general environment was actually, this is not remotely what it was hyped up to be, and there were problems and risks and political opposition and, and the government simply decided it would be simpler to ban it.

James - So just to clarify, you've mentioned how particularly in the United States, fracking's enjoyed some success. The main reasons that we couldn't replicate that success in the UK, that's to do with us not knowing exactly how much shell gas is under the surface to the UK.

Michael - Well, as part of the, a decade ago when there was a lot of excitement, there was a fair amount of mapping of the broad resource. But I think it's important to stress you just look at a map. The US has a vast land surface compared with the UK and a lot of it is much less population. That's one thing. There's still very much the US industries concentrated on some particularly good resources. Nothing in the geological mapping suggested we had anything that was gonna be that good, big, cheap, or easy to access. Land in Europe as a whole tends to be a lot more expensive than in the US. One final factor is the legal regime was different. So people who had land, in the US, they owned a gas underneath. It gave them a strong incentive to put up with disruption if they got the money. And that's not generally the situation here. So there were lots of reasons why fracking never took off, in Europe in the way that it did in the US.

James - So I suppose what's different now? Could the lifting of the moratorium, this is the big question, alleviate the surge in energy prices being felt here in the UK at the moment?

Michael - Well, I think there's four challenges frankly that shale is gonna face. There's timescale, there's cost, there's markets and there's, there's risks. The timescale is determined. Partly you have to drill dozens of holes to really know what's there in detail and to establish what you can actually inject, how much it's gonna take, et cetera, et cetera. So there's going to be quite a lot of drilling to really establish what's there that you may be able to get at and then the cost of getting at it. Obviously it is a lot easier to drill a hole down into a pure reservoir of gas and it comes up in a pipe than it is to go through the processes, that's just been described to you, you do need the factors that we mentioned, fairly cheap land, fairly easy access and so forth.

Michael - Third, that probably makes it more expensive than normal gas resources, but it could still be economic at these gas prices for sure. But bear in mind, the timescale implied in there . It's gonna take several years to get substantial supplies. And one of, of the reluctance of the industries, they're worried that they might invest a lot, maybe upset a lot of our people, just when they can start getting significant supplies, the gas price crashes, again, they don't know. The third thing is markets, because these are global industries, would we be saying to companies, Sure, go ahead and frack and sell it on the international markets. Well, the volume that we would sell would make virtually no difference to the global price or therefore to our price unless we actually kind of forced companies to sell it to Britain first at a less economic, less attractive price.

Michael - And that of course, is not a way, you're gonna get huge enthusiasm in the industry. So there's a bit of a paradox there, which is why most people say that whatever we do do with fracking is not actually gonna affect the cost of gas in the UK . And then finally, there are the environmental risks and whether something goes wrong, there's a that basically does create a bit of a backlash. I'm not sure the industry is that keen to jump in here. For the most part, some companies, a few specialist companies are that have put all their eggs in that basket.

James - So it looks like the odds have really heavily stacked against fracking. I just wonder if something like for example, today we will, the objective of this program has to been to sort of remove the politics from this quite contentious topic. But the reason we're having this discussion is because politically it's, it's, it's very topical. And I wonder if something like the national Grid coming out today and saying that winter power cuts might be a, a worse case scenario in the coming months, whether that might mean that the government sees fit and, and it it gives the companies the assurances to make them start during. Do you see that as a possibility that the politics has a role over the economics?

Michael - Well, I think for whatever reasons, clearly the government is signaling that it's in favor of fracking. It wants it to start up again. It's pushing it quite hard. There's obviously an instinctive appeal about trying to extract your own energy resources. I mean it will have consequences,, internationally as as well. And, implications. I think it's actually, I must have been a little ironic hearing the news in the last couple of days about lights might go out because of this. I actually for three years chaired the government committee on electricity security, um, called electric committee expert committee on EMR, And raise this question about we're assuming that becauyse we've got enough gas plants, therefore our electricity will be secure. Isn't that an assumption we should look at? And I was pretty robustly told, no, this is an electricity committee. Uh, we've got enough diversity in gas. You didn't worry about gas suppliers. So Michael stay like in the box of electricity. But you know, energy markets have always had a capacity to bring us shocks

James - And that's where we have to leave it. Thank you very much, Michael Grub University College London.

Shale gas sign

15:59 - Environmental and societal issues in fracking

What exactly are the problems raised with the environmental and social side of fracking?

Environmental and societal issues in fracking
Jasmine Cooper, Imperial College London

Jasmin Cooper is a research associate at the Sustainable Gas Institute at Imperial College London and is here to divulge a little more detail on the environmental and social consequences of fracking...

Chris - With us now is Jasmine Cooper. Jasmine's a research associate at the Sustainable Gas Institute at Imperial College and is going to shed a bit more light on some of the environmental, but also the social consequences of fracking. Jasmine, first of all, we haven't considered yet the question, of when we burn this gas, does it amount to the same outcome, which is it's still a climate change gas? Will it still lead to greenhouse gas emission changes in the atmosphere, whether it comes out of fracking or comes out of the North Sea from our existing gas fields?

Jasmine - Yeah, Chris, that's a good question. Absolutely. As Andy said, shale gas is exactly the same as the natural gas we get from the North Sea. So when you burn it, you will get CO2 emitted. You also get methane emissions from the different stages of producing it as well.

Chris - And when we go through the process, as Michael just said, we've gotta drill a lot of holes, Andy said, and you then shove stuff down under pressure into the ground in order to prop those small holes open. There's a lot of stuff going in, there's a lot of environmental impact there that is very visible. It's on land, it's near people's homes. Let sort of drill down, excuse the pun, into each of those elements in turn. The environmental contamination in terms of what we put into the ground. Tell us about that. How much of a risk is that judged to be?

Jasmine - Well it depends a lot on whether or not you'll get any seepage from the hydraulic fracturing into any local aquifers or any water bodies. We've had such little drilling activity, it is really difficult to actually try to put a number on whether or not there'll be any risk of water contamination.

Chris - Experiences in other countries? America?

Jasmine - There is some experience of maybe some migration of chemicals that was used in the fracturing fluid as well as some migration of methane into some local water bodies as well. So potentially yes, but it really depends on whether or not you have any water bodies near where you're drilling. So it goes down to a lot of surveying your area really.

Chris - Well one of our listeners got in touch and said, well how does this all get policed in terms of is self-reporting or is there a regulator? Is there an oversight body? What sort of mechanism is in place to keep tabs on this and also to predict in the way you're saying that this might all might not happen.

Jasmine - Well, in the UK it's quite different to the US because things are regulated quite differently there. A lot of it's on the federal scale and different states have different regulations. In the UK there's a lot more regulations and regulatory bodies. So big organisations like the oil and gas authority, BASE, and environment agencies. So they'd be able to regulate and police different environmental aspects.

Chris - But you're saying that because we've not done very much of it, we have not very much experience of it, which makes it a bit of a chicken and egg. Do we have to do it, find out what can go wrong <laugh> to work at what to police? Or is there already a framework for if we do go down this path, this is how we're gonna keep tabs on it?

Jasmine - Unfortunately yes because each shale gas well in each area that you do drill in, it'll be very different to one another. It's not like an IKEA set, we can just follow the instructions <laugh>. So unfortunately you will have to learn as you go along. You can look at the US because they do have the massive scale of shale gas exploration there. So you can look to see if there's any lessons you can learn from them and what to do and what to not do.

Chris - Okay. And in terms of that pollution argument, how significant do we judge that to be? Because that is something that people are extremely vocal about with groundwater contamination, spread of what gets put down into the wells and so on. How much of a threat do we regard that as?

Jasmine - Based on what's happened in the US it's not necessarily contamination from the hydraulic fracturing and then migrations, that would be the biggest threat would be more of the flow back fluid that's produced.

Chris - So what you put down the well is coming back out?

Jasmine - What comes back up, yeah. Because in addition to the chemicals that's in the fracturing fluid, you also get any chemicals and minerals that are within the rock that would've dissolved.

Chris - That they washed out.

Jasmine - Yeah, what is washed out comes back up

Chris - And what can happen to it?

Jasmine - In the UK it was proposed that any flow back fluid that was produced would be sent to wastewater treatment plants to get treated. But there are some issues because of quite a few of the chemicals that get used in the fracturing fluid. So lots of like surfactants that are used to control the viscosity but also chemicals that can come up from the rock. There's some radioactive materials that can also come up. They're not things wastewater treatment plants are designed to treat?

Chris - Not normally, no.

Jasmine - No, just concerns about how they're gonna handle that.

Chris - What sort of volumes are we talking about? Just briefly? I mean what amount of material might the wastewater comprise? Are we talking thousands of gallons, millions of gallons, litres? How many?

Jasmine - Well it depends on the scale but you're looking at hundreds of thousands of cubic metres.

Chris - So huge. This is a significant issue. Yeah, fair enough. Let's consider the sort of social aspects because we've looked at the sort of geological and the environmental and why people therefore might object to them. What about the whole social thing? How receptive are people really to this? Are people saying 'yeah, okay I can see there's an energy crisis, we need to do our bit, it's fine'. Are people saying 'absolutely not over my dead body?'

Jasmine - I think it's an interesting time because obviously we're in a bit of an energy crisis so that might shift people more towards being more accepting of it. But from an environmental side and also from a community side, if you live near a site where they're going to drill, you may not like the idea of earthquakes that you didn't sign up for when you first moved to where you live. And also the increase in traffic and just the general industrialization of what are normally quite rural communities.

Chris - Mm. The Prime Minister was talking to BBC Radio Lancashire recently. They were pressing her on the question of this whole issue of what they are dubbing 'local consent'. Have a listen to this…

<News Clip>

News Reader - Let's talk about local consent right now. What does local consent look like?

Chris - Prime Minister?

Liz Truss - The, the energy secretary will be laying out, uh, in more detail exactly what that looks like. But it does mean making sure there is local support for, for, for going ahead. And I can assure you it sounds like you don't, I can assure -

News Reader -
It sounds like you don't know…

<News Clip Ends>

Chris - …What is local consent, Jasmine <laugh>.

Jasmine - So local consent would be having the support and backing of the local communities so that they are on board with the development of shale gas activity in their area and are actively in favour of the development. And there's no local opposition from both the local community but also the local authorities.

Chris - Because I think other members of the conservative party have said, 'well, people who live near, say, the new nuclear power station that's been endorsed on the southeast coast in England should get free electricity.' So is this a sweetener? Are we saying 'okay, people can get free gas <laugh> if you live near a fracking site?' I mean where's this going to end?

Jasmine - I'm not entirely sure because it depends on where you're drilling the gas and what the gas infrastructure is like. So potentially they could get highly subsidised gas if that's something the operator wants to do. But at the same time I think it's quite tricky to try to incentivize our communities by saying give you free energy because to a certain extent that's a bit like trying to bribe them.

Chris - Yeah, it almost sounds like coercion, doesn't it? I mean, are you comfortable with the question of fracking and if, if you were living in this area, would you say, look, knowing what I know, I'm an expert in this area, I'm quite comfortable with it going ahead, please do. Or, or would you actually object?

Jasmine - From a scientific perspective, I find it really interesting, but if I had to live near a site where they're going to drill shale gas, I might be a bit anxious.

Chris - Nuclear power station?

Jasmine - Less anxious.

Chris - Less anxious. That's interesting though, because a lot of people say they would much rather live near a coal fired power station than a nuclear power station. But weight for weight what the coal fired station chucks up the chimney is more radioactive, because of what's coming out of the ground or being burned by the thousands of tonne load. Jasmine, thanks very much. That's Jasmine Cooper. She's from Imperial College.

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